How Psychological Distance shapes Americans’ Climate Change Preferences: a Conjoint Analysis

Abstract: How does the psychological distance of natural disasters influence climate attitudes? Existing work that applies construal level theory (CLT) to study climate perceptions report mixed effects, precluding clear messaging guidance for climate change communicators. We argue that prior experimental evidence mostly does not test distance dimensions independently, despite CLT being a multidimensional theory comprising social, spatial, temporal, and probabilistic distance. We contribute a systematic test of the effects of psychological distance on climate attitudes by independently manipulating each distance dimension via a pre-registered conjoint experiment about floods. Study 1 recruited 700 Republicans, finding that socially proximate natural disasters that affect one’s ingroup consistently increase pro-climate attitudes. However, spatial, temporal, and probabilistic distance generally do not have a significant effect. Specifically, highlighting the impacts of climate on social in-groups can increase Republicans’ pro-climate attitudes by up to $5$ percentage points. Our proposed Study 2 applies a national sample, validates our manipulations, and tests theoretically relevant mechanisms, including ingroup identification strength, moral foundations, and affective responses, that may account for the out-sized effects of social distance. Our study offers a first attempt at independently manipulating all four distances at once. Findings indicate the out-sized role of highlighting ingroup members’ vulnerability to climate change as an effective communication strategy.

Presentations: MPSA 2025, SPSA 2026 (upcoming)

Keywords: Political Psychology, Climate Change, Construal Level Theory, Polarization, Public Opinion, Survey Experiments, Social Identity, Republicans